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Jens Hainmueller
Working Papers

Leveraging the Power of Place: A Data-Driven Decision Helper to Improve the Location Decisions of Economic Immigrants

Jeremy Ferwerda, Nicholas Adams-Cohen, Jennifer Fei, Duncan Lawrence, Jeremy M. Weinstein, Jens Hainmueller
Immigration Policy Lab (IPL) Working Paper Series, 2020 August 18, 2020

A growing number of countries have established programs to attract immigrants who can contribute to their economy. Research suggests that an immigrant's initial arrival location plays a key role in shaping their economic success. Yet immigrants currently lack access to personalized information that would help them identify optimal destinations. Instead, they often rely on availability heuristics, which can lead to the selection of sub-optimal landing locations, lower earnings, elevated outmigration rates, and concentration in the most well-known locations.

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Journal Articles

Using Conjoint Experiments to Analyze Elections: The Essential Role of the Average Marginal Component Effect (AMCE)

Kirk Bansak, Jens Hainmueller, Daniel J. Hopkins, Teppei Yamamoto
SSRN, 2020 June 12, 2020

Political scientists have increasingly deployed conjoint survey experiments to understand multi-dimensional choices in various settings. We begin with a general framework for analyzing voter preferences in multi-attribute elections using conjoints. With this framework, we demonstrate that the Average Marginal Component Effect (AMCE) is well-defined in terms of individual preferences and represents a central quantity of interest to empirical scholars of elections: the effect of a change in an attribute on a candidate or party's expected vote share.

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Journal Articles

Left-Right Ideology and the Debate over International Bailouts: The Case of Grexit

Kirk Bansak, Michael M. Bechtel, Jens Hainmueller, Yotam Margalit
The Journal of Politics, 2020 April 30, 2020

What explains the sharp divide in European public attitudes toward Grexit? We explore this question using original surveys from four of the largest European economies. We contend that differences in economic self-interest, and the often-mentioned chasm between supporters of mainstream and extremist parties, provide little insight into the public divide over Grexit. Instead, we show that the key factor is the split between the left and the right. We then develop and test a set of theoretical explanations for the prominence of this cleavage.

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Working Papers

Using Eye-Tracking to Understand Decision-Making in Conjoint Experiments

Libby Jenke, Kirk Bansak, Jens Hainmueller, Dominik Hangartner
SSRN, 2020 April 28, 2020

Conjoint experiments enjoy increasing popularity in political and social science, but there is a paucity of research on respondents' underlying decision-making processes. We leverage eye-tracking methodology and a conjoint experiment, administered to a subject pool consisting of university students and local community members, to examine how respondents process information when completing conjoint surveys. Our study has two main findings.

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Journal Articles

The effect of citizenship on the long-term earnings of marginalized immigrants: Quasi-experimental evidence from Switzerland

Jens Hainmueller, Dominik Hangartner, Dalston Ward
Science Advances, 2019 December 31, 2019

We provide evidence that citizenship catalyzes the long-term economic integration of immigrants. Despite the relevance of citizenship policy to immigrant integration, we lack a reliable understanding of the economic consequences of acquiring citizenship. To overcome nonrandom selection into naturalization, we exploit the quasi-random assignment of citizenship in Swiss municipalities that held referendums to decide the outcome of individual naturalization applications.

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Journal Articles

Public Health Insurance Expansion for Immigrant Children and Interstate Migration of Low-Income Immigrants

Vasil I Yasenov, Duncan Lawrence, Fernando S Mendoza, Jens Hainmueller
JAMA Pediatric, 2019 November 30, 2019

Federal policy changes in 2002 and 2009 led some states to expand public health insurance coverage to non-US-born children and pregnant women who are lawful permanent residents during their first 5 years of residency in the United States. In other states, there were concerns that insurance expansion could attract immigrants to relocate to gain free health insurance coverage.

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Working Papers

In Search of Opportunity and Community: The Secondary Migration of Refugees in the United States

Nadwa Mossad, Jeremy Ferwerda, Duncan Lawrence, Jeremy M. Weinstein, Jens Hainmueller
SSRN, 2019 October 3, 2019

Each year the United States resettles thousands of refugees in pre-determined locations across the country. However, refugees are free to relocate upon arrival. Although this secondary migration can fundamentally alter outcomes for both refugees and the communities that host them, policymakers lack systematic data on this phenomenon. Using novel administrative data covering all adult refugees resettled between 2000 and 2014 (N≈447,000), we provide a comprehensive analysis of secondary migration patterns.

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Journal Articles

Standardizing the fee-waiver application increased naturalization rates of low-income immigrants

Vasil Yasenov, Michael Hotard, Duncan Lawrence, Jens Hainmueller, David Laitin
PNAS, 2019 August 20, 2019

The problem of low naturalization rates in the United States has entered policymakers’ agendas in light of the societal gains associated with citizenship and an increasing number of foreign-born residents. Nevertheless, there is little evidence on what policy interventions work best to increase naturalization rates. In this research, we show that the standardization of the fee waiver for citizenship applications in 2010 raised naturalization rates among low-income immigrants.

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Journal Articles

A low-cost information nudge increases citizenship application rates among low-income immigrants

Michael Hotard, Duncan Lawrence, David Laitin, Jens Hainmueller
Nature: Human Behaviour, 2019 April 15, 2019

We show that an information nudge increased the rate of American citizenship applications among low-income immigrants eligible for a federal fee waiver. Approximately half of the 9 million naturalization-eligible immigrants qualify for a federal programme that waives the cost of the citizenship application for low-income individuals.

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Journal Articles

The long-term impact of employment bans on the economic integration of refugees

Moritz Marbach, Jens Hainmueller, Dominik Hangartner
Science Advances, 2018 September 30, 2018

Many European countries impose employment bans that prevent asylum seekers from entering the local labor market for a certain waiting period upon arrival. We provide evidence on the long-term effects of these employment bans on the subsequent economic integration of refugees. We leverage a natural experiment in Germany, where a court ruling prompted a reduction in the length of the employment ban.

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Journal Articles

Determinants of refugee naturalization in the United States

Nadwa Mossaad, Jeremy Ferwerda, Duncan Lawrence, Jeremy M. Weinstein, Jens Hainmueller
PNAS, 2018 September 11, 2018

The United States operates the world’s largest refugee resettlement program. However, there is almost no systematic evidence on whether refugees successfully integrate into American society over the long run. We address this gap by drawing on linked administrative data to directly measure a long-term integration outcome: naturalization rates. Assessing the full population of refugees resettled between 2000 and 2010, we find that refugees naturalize at high rates: 66% achieved citizenship by 2015.

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Journal Articles

Oregon’s Expansion of Prenatal Care Improved Utilization Among Immigrant Women

Jonas J. Swartz, Jens Hainmueller, Duncan Lawrence, Maria I. Rodriguez
Maternal and Child Health Journal, 2018 July 23, 2018

Objectives To determine whether expanding Emergency Medicaid to cover prenatal care in Oregon affected maternal health outcomes for unauthorized immigrants. Methods This study takes place in Oregon from 2003 to 2015 and includes all Emergency Medicaid and Medicaid claims for women aged 12–51 with a pregnancy related claim. To isolate the effect of expanding access to prenatal care, we utilized a difference-in-differences approach that exploits the staggered rollout of the prenatal care program. The primary outcome was a composite measure of severe maternal morbidity and mortality.

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Working Papers

How Much Should We Trust Estimates from Multiplicative Interaction Models? Simple Tools to Improve Empirical Practice

Jens Hainmueller, Jonathan Mummolo, Yiqing Xu
SSRN, 2018 April 29, 2018

Multiplicative interaction models are widely used in social science to examine whether the rel

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Journal Articles

Protecting unauthorized immigrant mothers improves their children’s mental health

Jens Hainmueller, Duncan Lawrence, Linna Marten, Bernard Black, Lucila Figueroa, Michael Hotard, Tomás R. Jiménez, Fernando Mendoza, Maria I. Rodriguez, Jonas J. Swartz, David Laitin
Science, 2017 August 31, 2017

The United States is embroiled in a debate about whether to protect or deport its estimated 11 million unauthorized immigrants, but the fact that these immigrants are also parents to more than 4 million U.S.-born children is often overlooked. We provide causal evidence of the impact of parents’ unauthorized immigration status on the health of their U.S. citizen children. The Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program granted temporary protection from deportation to more than 780,000 unauthorized immigrants.

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Journal Articles

Kernel-Based Regularized Least Squares in R (KRLS) and Stata (krls)

Jeremy Ferwerda, Jens Hainmueller, Chad J. Hazlett
Journal of Statistical Software, 2017 July 13, 2017

The Stata package krls as well as the R package KRLS implement kernel-based regularized least squares (KRLS), a machine learning method described in Hainmueller and Hazlett (2014) that allows users to tackle regression and classification problems without strong functional form assumptions or a specification search. The flexible KRLS estimator learns the functional form from the data, thereby protecting inferences against misspecification bias. Yet it nevertheless allows for interpretability and inference in ways similar to ordinary regression models.

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Commentary

Europeans Would Accept More Refugees—If the Asylum System Were Fair

Kirk Bansak, Jens Hainmueller, Dominik Hangartner
LSE Department of Government Blog, 2017 July 5, 2017

Kirk Bansak, Jens Hainmueller and Dominik Hangartner’s study of the European refugee crisis shows broad support across Europe for the proportional allocation of asylum seekers.

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Journal Articles

Europeans support a proportional allocation of asylum seekers

Kirk Bansak, Jens Hainmueller, Dominik Hangartner
Nature Human Behaviour, 2017 June 26, 2017

What type of common asylum regime would Europeans support? We conducted a survey asking 18,000 citizens of 15 European countries about their preferences regarding different mechanisms for allocating asylum seekers across countries. A large majority supports an allocation that is proportional to each country’s capacity over the status quo policy of allocation based on the country of first entry.

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Journal Articles

Providing driver’s licenses to unauthorized immigrants in California improves traffic safety

Jens Hainmueller
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America , 2017 April 18, 2017

The integration of immigrants presents a major challenge for policymakers in the United States. In an effort to improve integration, several US states recently have implemented laws that provide driver’s licenses to unauthorized immigrants. These new laws have sparked widespread debate, but we lack evidence on the traffic safety impact of these policies. We examine the short-term effects of the largest-scale policy shift, California’s Assembly Bill 60 (AB60), under which more than 600,000 licenses were issued in the first year of implementation in 2015 alone.

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Journal Articles

The Number of Choice Tasks and Survey Satisficing in Conjoint Experiments

Jens Hainmueller
SSRN, 2017 February 14, 2017

In recent years, political and social scientists have made increasing use of conjoint survey designs to study decision-making. Here, we study a consequential question which researchers confront when implementing conjoint designs: how many choice tasks can respondents perform before survey satisficing degrades response quality? To answer the question, we run a set of experiments where respondents are asked to complete as many as 30 conjoint tasks.

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Journal Articles

How economic, humanitarian, and religious concerns shape European attitudes toward asylum seekers

Kirk Bansak, Jens Hainmueller, Dominik Hangartner
Science, 2016 September 22, 2016

What types of asylum seekers are Europeans willing to accept? We conducted a conjoint experiment asking 18,000 eligible voters in 15 European countries to evaluate 180,000 profiles of asylum seekers that randomly varied on nine attributes. Asylum seekers who have higher employability, have more consistent asylum testimonies and severe vulnerabilities, and are Christian rather than Muslim received the greatest public support.

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Working Papers

Aristotelian Equality and International Cooperation: Europeans Prefer a Proportional Asylum Regime

Kirk Bansak, Jens Hainmueller, Dominik Hangartner
2016 September 1, 2016

What type of asylum regime do European citizens support? Based on a survey experiment involving 18,000 citizens across fifteen European countries, we examine public support for alternative mechanisms for allocating asylum seekers across Europe. We provide novel evidence showing that public preferences on this issue are driven largely by adherence to the Aristotelian norm of proportional equality, which tends to override consequentialist considerations.

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Journal Articles

When lives are put on hold: Lengthy asylum processes decrease employment among refugees

Jens Hainmueller, Dominik Hangartner, Duncan Lawrence
Science Advances, 2016 August 3, 2016

European governments are struggling with the biggest refugee crisis since World War II, but there exists little evidence regarding how the management of the asylum process affects the subsequent integration of refugees in the host country. We provide new causal evidence about how one central policy parameter, the length of time that refugees wait in limbo for a decision on their asylum claim, affects their subsequent economic integration.

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Journal Articles

Does Lean Improve Labor Standards? Management and Social Performance in the Nike Supply Chain

Greg Distelhorst, Jens Hainmueller, Richard M. Locke
Management Science, 2016 March 25, 2016
This study tests the hypothesis that lean manufacturing improves the social performance of manufacturers in emerging markets. We analyze an intervention by Nike, Inc., to promote the adoption of lean manufacturing inits apparel supply chain across 11 developing countries.
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Working Papers

How Much Should We Trust Estimates from Multiplicative Interaction Models? Simple Tools to Improve Empirical Practice

Jens Hainmueller, Jonathan Mummolo, Yiqing Xu
Social Science Research Network, 2016 March 14, 2016

Multiplicative interaction models are widely used in social science to test whether the relationship between an outcome and an independent variable changes with a moderating variable. Current empirical practice overlooks two important problems. First, these models assume a linear interaction effect that changes at a constant rate with the moderator. Second, reliably estimating the conditional effects of the independent variable at all values of the moderator requires sufficient common support.

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Working Papers

The Ideological Basis of the Grexit Debate

Kirk Bansak, Michael M. Bechtel, Jens Hainmueller, Yotam Margalit
Social Science Research Network, 2016 January 1, 2016

What explains the sharp divide among European publics over the Grexit? We explore this question using original surveys from four of the largest European economies. We contend that differences in citizens' own economic interests, as well as the often-mentioned chasm between supporters of mainstream and extremist parties, provide little insight into the public divide over the Grexit. Instead, we show that the key factor is the split between the left and right. We then develop and test a set of theoretical explanations for this cleavage.

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