Excess Savings and Twin Deficits: The Transmission of Fiscal Stimulus in Open Economies
Excess Savings and Twin Deficits: The Transmission of Fiscal Stimulus in Open Economies
Governments around the world responded to the economic fallout from the COVID pandemic with unprecedented transfers to households and firms, financing these transfers with large fiscal deficits that will have a long-lasting effect on public debt levels.1 During this period, private saving rates rose everywhere, and there were important movements in current accounts, including a notable increase in the US current-account deficit (see fig. 1). In this paper, we ask: To what extent were these changes related? How do fiscal deficits affect the world’s balance of payments in the short and the long run?