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What explains the sharp divide in European public attitudes toward Grexit? We explore this question using original surveys from four of the largest European economies. We contend that differences in economic self-interest, and the often-mentioned chasm between supporters of mainstream and extremist parties, provide little insight into the public divide over Grexit. Instead, we show that the key factor is the split between the left and the right. We then develop and test a set of theoretical explanations for the prominence of this cleavage. We find that the left-right divide over Grexit is not driven by differences in attitudes on redistribution, levels of empathy, or general European Union support. Instead, left and right voters seem to have different expectations about how a default and exit of a currency-union member would affect the European economy. These expectations likely reflect differences in core beliefs about the consequences of a free-market approach.

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The Journal of Politics
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Jens Hainmueller
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This chapter examines the World Trade Organization (WTO), its history and its relevancy today to our understanding of trade agreements. It examines the central norms of the system and compares trade liberalisation under the multilateral WTO with the more exclusive regional and/or preferential trade agreements. The chapter first addresses the political consequences of General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade/WTO membership, focusing both on the rules and norms of the regime and on the explanation for why they have become less functional over time. It then looks at its legislative success and compares that with agreements that have existed simultaneously, but have limited membership. The chapter also looks at the effectiveness of the WTO as a forum for dispute settlement. It further presents some general thoughts on the impact of a rise in populism and other stumbling blocks the WTO faces.

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Judy Goldstein
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  • The first volume that brings together the work of scholars pioneering digital approaches to the Republic of Letters
  • Innovative applications of social network analysis and digital methods to provide new perspectives on the Republic of Letters
  • Exciting new perspectives on the European networks that made up the Republic of Letters
  • A volume that elegantly combines traditional humanistic inquiry with innovative digital methods, to offer fresh perspectives on some of the most important issues in eighteenth-century studies
  • This volume provides exemplary models of how social network analysis (SNA) can be adapted for historical research
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Oxford University Press
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Dan Edelstein
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This review evaluates the use of spatial models for the analysis of policymaking. First, we examine spatial theory and its applications in a variety ofinstitutional settings. We discuss how the preferences of the actors involvedin political processes, the steps in those processes, and the locations of thereversion policies affect the policies that emerge from the processes. To illustrate this and analyze how the rights of political actors determine the extentof policy reform and the occurrence of gridlock, we use a spatial model ofEuropean Union (EU) policy making. We apply the model to major EU reforms in two resource policy areas: the Common Agricultural Policy reformsof the past two decades and the recent reforms of the Emissions TradingSystem.

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Annual Review of Resource Economics
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Christophe Crombez
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A growing number of countries have established programs to attract immigrants who can contribute to their economy. Research suggests that an immigrant's initial arrival location plays a key role in shaping their economic success. Yet immigrants currently lack access to personalized information that would help them identify optimal destinations. Instead, they often rely on availability heuristics, which can lead to the selection of sub-optimal landing locations, lower earnings, elevated outmigration rates, and concentration in the most well-known locations. To address this issue and counteract the effects of cognitive biases and limited information, we propose a data-driven decision helper that draws on behavioral insights, administrative data, and machine learning methods to inform immigrants' location decisions. The decision helper provides personalized location recommendations that reflect immigrants' preferences as well as data-driven predictions of the locations where they maximize their expected earnings given their profile. We illustrate the potential impact of our approach using backtests conducted with administrative data that links landing data of recent economic immigrants from Canada's Express Entry system with their earnings retrieved from tax records. Simulations across various scenarios suggest that providing location recommendations to incoming economic immigrants can increase their initial earnings and lead to a mild shift away from the most populous landing destinations. Our approach can be implemented within existing institutional structures at minimal cost, and offers governments an opportunity to harness their administrative data to improve outcomes for economic immigrants.

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Working Papers
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Immigration Policy Lab (IPL) Working Paper Series
Authors
Jens Hainmueller
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20-06
Authors
Anna Grzymała-Busse
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Commentary
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Anna Grzymala-Busse
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Christianity in Europe is fading. A vague and symbolic identity is replacing belief in God, belonging to denominations, and attendance at religious services. Olivier Roy documents these changes in Is Europe Christian?, and shows how long-term secularism, recent populism, and the cultural shifts of the 1960s are responsible for this fall from grace.

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Hagia Sophia interior
Built as a cathedral, Hagia Sophia in Istanbul, Turkey, has also been a mosque and a museum and is now again a working mosque. | Getty Images
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Stanford history professor says conquest narratives don’t fully explain Hagia Sophia’s lasting legacy.

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This paper empirically examines recently declassified tariff bargaining data from the GATT/WTO. Focusing on the Torquay Round (1950–1951), we document stylized facts about these interconnected high-stakes international negotiations that suggest a lack of strategic behavior among the participating governments and an important multilateral element to the bilateral bargains. We suggest that these features can be understood as emerging from a tariff bargaining forum that emphasizes the GATT pillars of MFN and multilateral reciprocity, and we offer evidence that the relaxation of strict bilateral reciprocity facilitated by the GATT multilateral bargaining forum was important to the success of the GATT approach.

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American Economic Journal: Applied Economics
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Kyle Bagwell
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Medieval Manuscripts in the Digital Age explores one major manuscript repository’s digital presence and poses timely questions about studying books from a temporal and spatial distance via the online environment.

Through contributions from a large group of distinguished international scholars, the volume assesses the impact of being able to access and interpret these early manuscripts in new ways. The focus on Parker on the Web, a world-class digital repository of diverse medieval manuscripts, comes as that site made its contents Open Access. Exploring the uses of digital representations of medieval texts and their contexts, contributors consider manuscripts from multiple perspectives including production, materiality, and reception. In addition, the volume explicates new interdisciplinary frameworks of analysis for the study of the relationship between texts and their physical contexts, while centring on an appreciation of the opportunities and challenges effected by the digital representation of a tangible object. Approaches extend from the codicological, palaeographical, linguistic, and cultural to considerations of reader reception, image production, and the implications of new technologies for future discoveries.

Medieval Manuscripts in the Digital Age advances the debate in manuscript studies about the role of digital and computational sources and tools. As such, the book will appeal to scholars and students working in the disciplines of Digital Humanities, Medieval Studies, Literary Studies, Library and Information Science, and Book History.

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Routledge
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Elaine Treharne
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Stalin and the Fate of Europe book
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Norman Naimark received the 2020 Norris and Carol Hundley Award from the Pacific Coast Branch of the American Historical Association

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