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The United States operates the world’s largest refugee resettlement program. However, there is almost no systematic evidence on whether refugees successfully integrate into American society over the long run. We address this gap by drawing on linked administrative data to directly measure a long-term integration outcome: naturalization rates. Assessing the full population of refugees resettled between 2000 and 2010, we find that refugees naturalize at high rates: 66% achieved citizenship by 2015. This rate is substantially higher than among other immigrants who became eligible for citizenship during the same period. We also find significant heterogeneity in naturalization rates. Consistent with the literature on immigration more generally, sociodemographic characteristics condition the likelihood of naturalization. Women, refugees with longer residency, and those with higher education levels are more likely to obtain citizenship. National origins also matter. While refugees from Iran, Iraq, and Somalia naturalize at higher rates, those from Burma, Ukraine, Vietnam, and Liberia naturalize at lower rates. We also find naturalization success is significantly shaped by the initial resettlement location. Placing refugees in areas that are urban, have lower rates of unemployment, and have a larger share of conationals increases the likelihood of acquiring citizenship. These findings suggest pathways to promote refugee integration by targeting interventions and by optimizing the geographic placement of refugees.

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Jens Hainmueller
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Lecturer of French and Francophone Studies
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Marie-Pierre Ulloa is a lecturer in the Comparative Literature, and in the French and Italian Department, teaching French and Francophone cultural and intellectual history, with a focus on France and North Africa. She is a faculty affiliate of the Taube Center for Jewish Studies, the Mediterranean Studies Forum, The Europe Center, and the Ehess in Paris (Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales).

Marie-Pierre is the author of two books: Francis Jeanson, a Dissident Intellectual from the French Resistance to the Algerian War (Stanford University Press, 2008, also published in French and Arabic), and Le Nouveau Rêve Américain : Du Maghreb à la Californie (The New American Dream: From North Africa to California, CNRS editions, 2019).

She is the co-founder of the Stanford Global Studies Summer Festival (2008) and the founder of the undergraduate short story contest (2014) sponsored by the Taube Center for Jewish Studies. 

Marie-Pierre received the honorific distinction of Chevalier de l'Ordre des Arts et des Lettres of the French Republic in 2013.

Marie-Pierre holds a degree in History from La Sorbonne, a MA in History and Political Science and an Advanced Post-Graduate Diploma in History (summa cum laude) from Sciences Po Paris, where she wrote her dissertation on intellectual dissidence from World War II to post-Algerian War through the case study of philosopher Francis Jeanson, publisher of Frantz Fanon's Black Skin, White Masks. She wrote her thesis on North African migration and migrant stories from North Africa to California: "From North Africa to California: migrant trajectories, integration narratives" at the EHESS (Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales, School for Advanced Studies in the Social Sciences, Ph.D, summa cum laude).
 
She is a regular contributor to La Vie des Idées / Books and Ideas. 

Affiliated lecturer of The Europe Center
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Fairleigh S. Dickinson, Jr. Professor in Public Policy.
Professor of Political Science
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Paul M. Sniderman is the Fairleigh S. Dickinson, Jr. Professor in Public Policy.

Sniderman’s current research focuses on the institutional organization of political choice; multiculturalism and inclusion of Muslims in Western Europe; and the politics of race in the United States.

Most recently, he authored The Democratic Faith and co-authored Paradoxes of Liberal Democracy: Islam, Western Europe and the Danish Cartoon Crisis (with Michael Bang Petersen, Rune Slothuus, and Rune Stubager).

He has published many other books, including The Reputational Premium: A Theory of Party Identification and Policy Reasoning, Reasoning and Choice, The Scar of Race, Reaching beyond Race, The Outsider, and Black Pride and Black Prejudice, in addition to a plethora of articles. He initiated the use of computer-assisted interviewing to combine randomized experiments and general population survey research.

A fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, he has been awarded the Woodrow Wilson Prize, 1992; the Franklin L. Burdette Pi Sigma Alpha Award, 1994; an award for the Outstanding Book on the Subject of Human Rights from the Gustavus Meyers Center, 1994; the Gladys M. Kammerer Award, 1998; the Pi Sigma Alpha Award; and the Ralph J. Bunche Award, 2003.

Sniderman received his B.A. degree (philosophy) from the University of Toronto and his M.A. and Ph.D. degrees from the University of California, Berkeley.

 

Affiliated faculty of The Europe Center
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Targeted killing by drones is a systemic driven instrumental practice that overrides societal non-instrumental practices that are essential for international society. Doing so, targeted killing by drones is not simply another form of inflicting violence by technical means to political opponents. It also inflicts the agents applying this practice, tempting them to frame it as a permissible measure to preserve international society. The reliance on drones for targeted killing is a pursuit of non-societal practices that seek individual and retributive justice and anticipatory and preventive self-defence by means of force relying on technological advantage. Eventually, this practice permits military tactics to steer political strategy, mitigating standards and practices agreed on in international society’s norms, rules of conduct, and institutions.

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International Politics
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Jodok Troy
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Soon after Raphael Lemkin coined the term “genocide” in Axis Rule in Occupied Europe in 1944, he began working on a world history of genocide to popularize his neologism. Correspondence with funding organizations and publishers shows that he was soliciting interest in a book on the subject as early as 1947 and that he had produced substantial draft chapters by the following year. Before his death in 1959, he had almost completed the book on genocide in world history but, in marked contrast to the present, publishers were uninterested in the project, which was neither completed nor published. Both Lemkin and his approach were forgotten until the 1980s, when a small group of social scientists founded a marginal field called comparative genocide studies.

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Journal of Genocide Research
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Norman M. Naimark
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Multiplicative interaction models are widely used in social science to examine whether the relationship between an outcome and an independent variable changes with a moderating variable. Current empirical practice tends to overlook two important problems. First, these models assume a linear interaction effect that changes at a constant rate with the moderator. Second, estimates of the conditional effects of the independent variable can be misleading if there is a lack of common support of the moderator. Replicating 46 interaction effects from 22 recent publications in five top political science journals, we find that these core assumptions often fail in practice, suggesting that a large portion of findings across all political science subfields based on interaction models are modeling artifacts or are at best highly model dependent. We propose a checklist of simple diagnostics to assess the validity of these assumptions and offer flexible estimation strategies that allow for nonlinear interaction effects and safeguard against excessive extrapolation. These statistical routines are available in both R and STATA.

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Jens Hainmueller
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In the New York Post article written by Ken Scheve and David Stasavage, the co-authors of Taxing the Rich: A History of Fiscal Fairness in the United States and Europe, the real motivation behind opposition to the GOP tax bill is examined in light of their research. 

To read the full article, please visit the Washington Post (Monkey Cage) webpage.

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Congressional Democrats Speak At Rally Protesting GOP Tax Bill On Capitol Hill
Congressional Democrats Speak At Rally Protesting GOP Tax Bill On Capitol Hill.
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Political scientist Anna Grzymala-Busse finds that authoritarians face a choice in the face of change: try to cling to power, exit governing or reinvent themselves as democrats. It’s those who reinvent themselves as newly minted democrats who fare the worst in the long run.

In the years since World War II, as the global geopolitical map was drawn and redrawn along ideological lines, the world witnessed ascension of many authoritarians. They often ruled for long stretches, but eventually most faced a political reckoning. The people they governed no longer accepted their authority and demanded change.

The fate of authoritarians in the aftermath of such crises is the subject of a new study in the journal Party Politics written by Stanford political scientist Anna Grzymala-Busse. At such inflection points, she says, authoritarians face a [[{"fid":"229407","view_mode":"crop_870xauto","fields":{"format":"crop_870xauto","field_file_image_description[und][0][value]":"Photograph of Anna Grzymala-Busse.","field_file_image_alt_text[und][0][value]":"Photograph of Anna Grzymala-Busse.","field_file_image_title_text[und][0][value]":"Photograph of Anna Grzymala-Busse.","field_credit[und][0][value]":"","field_caption[und][0][value]":"","thumbnails":"crop_870xauto","alt":"Photograph of Anna Grzymala-Busse.","title":"Photograph of Anna Grzymala-Busse."},"type":"media","field_deltas":{"1":{"format":"crop_870xauto","field_file_image_description[und][0][value]":"Photograph of Anna Grzymala-Busse.","field_file_image_alt_text[und][0][value]":"Photograph of Anna Grzymala-Busse.","field_file_image_title_text[und][0][value]":"Photograph of Anna Grzymala-Busse.","field_credit[und][0][value]":"","field_caption[und][0][value]":"","thumbnails":"crop_870xauto","alt":"Photograph of Anna Grzymala-Busse.","title":"Photograph of Anna Grzymala-Busse."}},"link_text":null,"attributes":{"alt":"Photograph of Anna Grzymala-Busse.","title":"Photograph of Anna Grzymala-Busse.","style":"float: right; height: 350px; width: 200px; margin-top: 10px; margin-left: 15px; margin-bottom: 10px;","class":"media-element file-crop-870xauto","data-delta":"1"}}]]choice:theycan cling to power, albeit by ceding a certain degree of control, or they can exit governing altogether, either by dissolving the party entirely or, more dramatically, by reinventing themselves as democrats.
 

Newly minted democrats

It was these reinventors – the newly minted democrats – that intrigued Grzymala-Busse the most. She found that while many enjoyed initial electoral success, most ended up losing power in the long run.
 
“Paradoxically,” Grzymala-Busse said, “this fate seems to flow precisely from the decision to reinvent their organizations, their political symbols and their state programs to fit the norms of free political competition.”
 
In adopting democratic rhetoric and standards of competence, it seems, the parties find initial success, but then are unable to sustain newfound democratic philosophies and programs. They hoist themselves on their own petards, as she put it in her paper, alluding to Shakespeare’s Hamlet.
 
These reinvented parties often attract new politicians who are more entrepreneurial than their predecessors. Those new faces, however, often prove to be mere opportunists. The resulting scandals destroy party credibility and contribute to an unending downward political spiral.

Ironically, Grzymala-Busse found that the best choice for authoritarians is simply to cling to power “counting on a loyal if unhappy electorate,” even if it means ceding much of their once-monopolistic grip on power to democratic reforms.

81 governments studied

For her study, Grzymala-Busse examined and quantified the resulting political denouements of 81 authoritarian governments spanning the period from 1945 to 2015. Countries studied include the former Soviet Bloc, China, Cuba, several in Southeast Asia, many African nations and Mexico. The governing systems ranged from the communism of the Soviet Bloc and socialism to secular state-building and rule for the sake of national security.

The success of the reinventors can be rapid and remarkable, but so too can be the demise. Grzymala-Busse noted that the Hungarian Socialist Party won 43 percent of the vote and 49 percent of the seats in 2006, only to succumb to allegations of deception, mismanagement and fraud soon afterward. In Poland, the Democratic and Left Alliance (SLD), which won 41 percent of the vote in 2001, watched as its power steeply declined in the subsequent decade until the party dissolved entirely in 2011.

“Those who reinvented shone more brightly for a brief time, but burned out. Those who chose orthodoxy never enjoyed the great success of the reinventors, but they survived,” she said.

And what of those authoritarians who choose neither to remain nor to reinvent? Grzymala said that they simply dissolve back into society where former members often capitalize on their connections to become captains of industry.

“Some become oligarchs,” she said, “retaining power by other means.”

Lessons on change

The takeaway of her study for at-risk authoritarians, Grzymala-Busse said, is that reinvention alone is not enough to carry the party. New parties cannot survive as the remnants of their former selves. They must become entirely new organizations with viable programmatic approaches. Likewise, she said, when newly minted democrats hail competence as a competitive advantage, they must make good on the promise. If they fall short, they face exceptionally harsh outcomes at the polls.

“The irony is, without real change, the parties that built democracy by supporting free elections fall victim to those same democratic forces they championed.”

Anna Grzymala-Busse is the Kevin and Michelle Douglas Professor of International Studies and a senior fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University.

The study was made possible by financial support from the Carnegie Foundation.

 

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I spent my adolescence around maps of places that didn’t exist. An older cousin read The Lord of the Rings over the course of a hot summer when I was nine, and I watched in fascination as he traced the Fellowship’s progress across the foldout map that came with the book in those days. This, I decided, had to be what grown-up reading looked like.

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Longreads
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Adrian Daub
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The United States is embroiled in a debate about whether to protect or deport its estimated 11 million unauthorized immigrants, but the fact that these immigrants are also parents to more than 4 million U.S.-born children is often overlooked. We provide causal evidence of the impact of parents’ unauthorized immigration status on the health of their U.S. citizen children. The Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program granted temporary protection from deportation to more than 780,000 unauthorized immigrants. We used Medicaid claims data from Oregon and exploited the quasi-random assignment of DACA eligibility among mothers with birthdates close to the DACA age qualification cutoff. Mothers’ DACA eligibility significantly decreased adjustment and anxiety disorder diagnoses among their children. Parents’ unauthorized status is thus a substantial barrier to normal child development and perpetuates health inequalities through the intergenerational transmission of disadvantage.

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Science
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Jens Hainmueller
David Laitin
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