Here comes the rain again. The skies darken and the winds howl; storms of a kind that should show up only once every half-millennium now arrive every 10 years. The world is warming up. The hotter the oceans get, the faster they evaporate, and the hotter the air gets, the more moisture it holds, with one devastating result: When the clouds let go of their watery load, it now pounds the earth for days at a time, washing away hillsides and flooding valleys and plains. Even when it isn't raining — the terrible storms alternate with equally terrible droughts — the glaciers go on melting, relentlessly raising sea levels and pushing waves farther and farther inland.

The article introduces the All Minorities at Risk (AMAR) data, a sample of socially recognized and salient ethnic groups. Fully coded for the forty core Minorities at Risk variables, this AMAR sample provides researchers with data for empirical analysis free from the selection issues known in the study of ethnic politics to date. We describe the distinct selection issues motivating the coding of the data with an emphasis on underexplored selection issues arising with truncation of ethnic group data, especially when moving between levels of data. We then describe our sampling technique and the resulting coded data. Next, we suggest some directions for the future study of ethnicity and conflict using our bias-corrected data. Our preliminary correlations suggest selection bias may have distorted our understanding about both group and country correlates of ethnic violence.

The Stata package krls as well as the R package KRLS implement kernel-based regularized least squares (KRLS), a machine learning method described in Hainmueller and Hazlett (2014) that allows users to tackle regression and classification problems without strong functional form assumptions or a specification search. The flexible KRLS estimator learns the functional form from the data, thereby protecting inferences against misspecification bias. Yet it nevertheless allows for interpretability and inference in ways similar to ordinary regression models. In particular, KRLS provides closed-form estimates for the predicted values, variances, and the pointwise partial derivatives that characterize the marginal effects of each independent variable at each data point in the covariate space. The method is thus a convenient and powerful alternative to ordinary least squares and other generalized linear models for regression-based analyses.

With every passing election, it seems clearer and clearer that the Western world's rich democracies are going through a fundamental political realignment. Out goes the old left/right political divide that we grew up with; in comes a new open/closed division. The fit is far from perfect, but generally speaking, the new order pits centrists against extremists of all stripes, the highly educated against those with less education, and those who consider themselves citizens of the world against those who identify with smaller worlds. Its central debates concern the mobility of capital, goods and ideas, but above all the mobility of people. Even the arguments over the North American Free Trade Agreement and the Trans-Pacific Partnership pale in comparison with those over migration. The last week alone has seen uproar in the United States over Texas Senate Bill 4 (considered to be anti-immigrant in nature) and in Europe over the British government's initial proposals on the fate of citizens of other European Union countries who have migrated to Britain.

International Politics and Institutions in Time is the definitive exploration, by a group of leading international relations scholars, of the contribution of the historical institutionalism tradition for the study of international politics.
Historical institutionalism is a counterpoint to the rational choice and sociological traditions of analysis in the study of international institutions, bringing particular attention to how timing and sequence of past events, path dependence, and other processes impact distributions of global power, policy choices, and the outcome of international political battles.

This book places places particular emphasis on the sources of stability and change in major international institutions, such as those shaping state sovereignty and global governance, including in the areas of international organization, law, political economy, human rights, environment, and security.

Featuring work by pioneering scholars, the volume is the most comprehensive collection to date on historical institutionalism in IR. It is projected to be of interest to multiple audiences including the international relations community, to historians, especially as that field is experiencing its own 'international' and 'global' turns, as well as sociologists and economists who work on institutions and international affairs.

As the World Trade Organization (WTO) begins its third decade, its future is uncertain. The initial expectation that the WTO would be the fulcrum for future international trade agreements has not been met. At best, its tenure has had mixed results. This review addresses the political consequences of WTO membership, focusing on the rules and norms of the regime and why they have become less functional over time; looks at the effectiveness of the WTO and the dispute settlement system in encouraging trade and compliance with agreements; and offers some general thoughts on the impact of shifting mass opinion on the virtue of trade agreements and other stumbling blocks the WTO faces.

By most measures, the West ought to declare victory in the process of globalization. Political institutions that developed in the West—representative government, liberal democracy, the rule of law, and the core catalog of rights—have become normative throughout the world. While few societies always meet all these expectations, and some fail miserably, the standards by which political systems anywhere are measured are products of western historical developments.