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Steven Pifer
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This article originally appeared in the Ukrainian journal Novoye Vremya.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy may meet President Donald Trump this weekend in Warsaw and is expected to travel to the United States later in the fall.  This gives Mr. Zelenskyy the opportunity to reinforce Kyiv’s relationship with the United States.  It also offers the opportunity to try to establish a connection to Mr. Trump, something that has proven elusive for most foreign leaders.  Here are a few suggestions for Mr. Zelenskyy on dealing with the American president.

Mr. Zelenskyy should bear in mind that Mr. Trump lacks a strong grasp of the U.S. interest in and what is at stake with regard to Ukraine and the conflict that Russia wages against it.  His administration has pursued sensible policies in supporting Kyiv, strengthening NATO and sustaining sanctions on Moscow.  By all appearances, however, Mr. Trump does not instinctively agree with the necessity of his administration’s own policies.  Witness his recent suggestion about inviting Vladimir Putin to join with other G7 leaders when he hosts the G7 summit next year.

Mr. Trump is not detail-oriented.  He reportedly reads little, leading White House staff to resort to graphs and pictures to capture his attention.  The smart way to approach Mr. Trump is to avoid detail, sticking instead with a few clear and easily understood themes.

Flattering the American president would not hurt.  North Korean leader Kim Jong-un appears to have mastered that.  North Korea has reduced none of its nuclear or ballistic missile capabilities—in fact, they have increased—but Mr. Trump swoons over Mr. Kim’s letters and professes not to be bothered by Pyongyang’s shorter range ballistic missile tests.

That said, keep expectations for flattery modest.  No European leader invested more heavily in flattering Mr. Trump than former British Prime Minister Theresa May.  She gave him a state visit in June with all the bells and whistles.  Yet Mr. Trump could not resist sending a series of tweets denigrating her handling of the Brexit conundrum and all but welcoming her replacement.

This underscores the point that, in many foreign policy relationships, Mr. Trump is transactional.  He will be asking what can America get, or what can he get.

Mr. Zelenskyy thus should consider whether there is a topic on which he could offer Mr. Trump a win-win.  Progress toward resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict in Donbas could provide such an issue.  Real movement toward peace would be a major win for Kyiv, but it could offer Mr. Trump a win as well.  He has repeatedly made clear his desire for improved U.S.-Russia relations, and a genuine settlement in Donbas could lift the biggest obstacle to his goal.

The question is how to shape a proposal to accomplish this.  Bringing Mr. Trump into the current Normandy negotiating format in a way that made it appear as if Mr. Trump sparked a breakthrough would appeal to the Nobel Prize-hungry American president.

However, the key to peace in Donbas lies in Moscow.  The Kremlin seems interested in sustaining a simmering conflict as a means to pressure the government in Kyiv.  Still, aligning interests with Mr. Trump on pressing for peace would be a plus for Mr. Zelenskyy.

While in the United States, the Ukrainian president should not neglect the Congressional leadership.  Both Democrats and Republicans on Capitol Hill support Ukraine and display considerable skepticism toward Russia.  Congress could serve as a check on Mr. Trump should he choose to pursue his less well-thought-out ideas on Russia.

Mr. Zelenskyy’s American interlocutors in Congress want Ukraine to succeed, with success measured by its progress in becoming a normal democratic, market-oriented and prosperous European state.  In the past, developments in Ukraine have disappointed both Ukrainians and the country’s friends in the West.  To the extent that Mr. Zelenskyy can make a persuasive case that this time it is different—that he and the new parliament will take the tough steps to achieve success—he will return home having forged a stronger basis for the U.S.-Ukrainian relationship.  He can bolster his case by coming to Washington with one or two signature reforms under his belt, such as an end to the moratorium on sales of private agricultural land.

One last piece of advice.  Mr. Zelenskyy and his team should be wary of former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani’s efforts to drag Ukraine into U.S. domestic politics.  That would risk making Ukraine a partisan political issue in America, which could undermine the bipartisan support that Ukraine has enjoyed since regaining independence in 1991.

* * * * *

Steven Pifer is a William Perry fellow at Stanford University and a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine.

 

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To listen to the audio recording of this talk, please visit our multimedia page.

 
Daniel Ziblatt will describe current dangers facing democracies around the world, including Europe and the United States and ways of preventing democracy's breakdown. He will draw lessons from the fateful missteps that have wrecked other democracies and from ways citizens have risen to meet the great democratic crises of the past.

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Portrait of Daniel Ziblatt, Harvard University

Daniel Ziblatt
is Eaton Professor of the Science of Government at Harvard University and Acting Director of Harvard's Center for European Studies.  Ziblatt's scholarship on democratization, democratic breakdown, and state-building include New York Times bestseller, How Democracies Die (2018), co-authored with Steven Levitsky; Conservative Parties and the Birth of Democracy (2017), winner of the American Political Science Association’s Woodrow Wilson Award for the best book published in the United States on government, politics, or international affairs; and Structuring the State: The Formation of Italy and Germany and the Puzzle of Federalism (2006).

Oksenberg Conference Room
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Daniel Ziblatt Eaton Professor of the Science of Government Speaker Harvard University
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Misconduct by those in high places is always dangerous to reveal. Whistleblowers thus face a paradox: by challenging and exposing transgressions by the powerful, they perform a vital public service; yet they always suffer for it. Comparing whistleblower protection in Europe and the United States brings into fuller relief the vital role truth-telling can play in sustaining civil discourse and democracy.


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Prof. Allison Stanger

Allison Stanger
is the Russell Leng ’60 Professor of International Politics and Economics and founding director of the Rohatyn Center for International Affairs at Middlebury College. She is the author of One Nation Under Contract: The Outsourcing of American Power and the Future of Foreign Policy and Whistleblowers: Honesty in America from Washington to Trump, both with Yale University Press. She is working on a new book tentatively titled Consumers vs. Citizens: Justice and Democracy’s Public Square in a Big Data World. Stanger’s writing has appeared in Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Financial Times, International Herald Tribune, New York Times, USA Today, U.S. News and World Report, and the Washington Post, and she has testified before the Commission on Wartime Contracting, the Senate Budget Committee, the Congressional Oversight Panel, the Senate HELP Committee, and the House Committee on Government Oversight and Reform. She is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and received her Ph.D. in Political Science from Harvard University. Stanger is currently a Scholar in Residence in the Cybersecurity Initiative at New America and an External Professor at the Santa Fe Institute.

 

Co-sponsored by the McCoy Family Center for Ethics in Society

 

Allison Stanger Professor of International Politics and Economics, Middlebury College Speaker Middlebury College
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The United States operates the world’s largest refugee resettlement program. However, there is almost no systematic evidence on whether refugees successfully integrate into American society over the long run. We address this gap by drawing on linked administrative data to directly measure a long-term integration outcome: naturalization rates. Assessing the full population of refugees resettled between 2000 and 2010, we find that refugees naturalize at high rates: 66% achieved citizenship by 2015. This rate is substantially higher than among other immigrants who became eligible for citizenship during the same period. We also find significant heterogeneity in naturalization rates. Consistent with the literature on immigration more generally, sociodemographic characteristics condition the likelihood of naturalization. Women, refugees with longer residency, and those with higher education levels are more likely to obtain citizenship. National origins also matter. While refugees from Iran, Iraq, and Somalia naturalize at higher rates, those from Burma, Ukraine, Vietnam, and Liberia naturalize at lower rates. We also find naturalization success is significantly shaped by the initial resettlement location. Placing refugees in areas that are urban, have lower rates of unemployment, and have a larger share of conationals increases the likelihood of acquiring citizenship. These findings suggest pathways to promote refugee integration by targeting interventions and by optimizing the geographic placement of refugees.

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Nadwa Mossaad
Jeremy Ferwerda
Duncan Lawrence
Jeremy M. Weinstein
Jens Hainmueller
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Lecturer of French and Francophone Studies
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Marie-Pierre Ulloa is a lecturer in the Comparative Literature, and in the French and Italian Department, teaching French and Francophone cultural and intellectual history, with a focus on France and North Africa. She is a faculty affiliate of the Taube Center for Jewish Studies, the Mediterranean Studies Forum, The Europe Center, and the Ehess in Paris (Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales).

Marie-Pierre is the author of two books: Francis Jeanson, a Dissident Intellectual from the French Resistance to the Algerian War (Stanford University Press, 2008, also published in French and Arabic), and Le Nouveau Rêve Américain : Du Maghreb à la Californie (The New American Dream: From North Africa to California, CNRS editions, 2019).

She is the co-founder of the Stanford Global Studies Summer Festival (2008) and the founder of the undergraduate short story contest (2014) sponsored by the Taube Center for Jewish Studies. 

Marie-Pierre received the honorific distinction of Chevalier de l'Ordre des Arts et des Lettres of the French Republic in 2013.

Marie-Pierre holds a degree in History from La Sorbonne, a MA in History and Political Science and an Advanced Post-Graduate Diploma in History (summa cum laude) from Sciences Po Paris, where she wrote her dissertation on intellectual dissidence from World War II to post-Algerian War through the case study of philosopher Francis Jeanson, publisher of Frantz Fanon's Black Skin, White Masks. She wrote her thesis on North African migration and migrant stories from North Africa to California: "From North Africa to California: migrant trajectories, integration narratives" at the EHESS (Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales, School for Advanced Studies in the Social Sciences, Ph.D, summa cum laude).
 
She is a regular contributor to La Vie des Idées / Books and Ideas. 

Affiliated lecturer of The Europe Center
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Fairleigh S. Dickinson, Jr. Professor in Public Policy.
Professor of Political Science
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Paul M. Sniderman is the Fairleigh S. Dickinson, Jr. Professor in Public Policy.

Sniderman’s current research focuses on the institutional organization of political choice; multiculturalism and inclusion of Muslims in Western Europe; and the politics of race in the United States.

Most recently, he authored The Democratic Faith and co-authored Paradoxes of Liberal Democracy: Islam, Western Europe and the Danish Cartoon Crisis (with Michael Bang Petersen, Rune Slothuus, and Rune Stubager).

He has published many other books, including The Reputational Premium: A Theory of Party Identification and Policy Reasoning, Reasoning and Choice, The Scar of Race, Reaching beyond Race, The Outsider, and Black Pride and Black Prejudice, in addition to a plethora of articles. He initiated the use of computer-assisted interviewing to combine randomized experiments and general population survey research.

A fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, he has been awarded the Woodrow Wilson Prize, 1992; the Franklin L. Burdette Pi Sigma Alpha Award, 1994; an award for the Outstanding Book on the Subject of Human Rights from the Gustavus Meyers Center, 1994; the Gladys M. Kammerer Award, 1998; the Pi Sigma Alpha Award; and the Ralph J. Bunche Award, 2003.

Sniderman received his B.A. degree (philosophy) from the University of Toronto and his M.A. and Ph.D. degrees from the University of California, Berkeley.

 

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Kenneth Scheve
David Stasavage
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In the New York Post article written by Ken Scheve and David Stasavage, the co-authors of Taxing the Rich: A History of Fiscal Fairness in the United States and Europe, the real motivation behind opposition to the GOP tax bill is examined in light of their research. 

To read the full article, please visit the Washington Post (Monkey Cage) webpage.

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Sarah Cormack-Patton is an Honorary Research Fellow at the University of Aberdeen. She is a political scientist whose research examines the politics of globalization, and particularly international migration, in the European Union and the United States. Sarah is interested in the economic and social effects of the cross-border movement of people, goods, and capital; the political coalitions that form over the cross-border movement of people, goods, and capital; the conditions under which states permit or limit the entry or exit of goods, capital, and people; and the efficacy of state policies designed to effect the entry or exit of goods, capital, and people. Her current research projects examine the ways in which varying bundles of migrant rights affect immigration policy preferences, the political coalitions that form over immigration policy, and the types of immigration policies enacted. Sarah earned her Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Pittsburgh in 2015 and was a Postdoctoral Scholar at Stanford University from September 2015 to September 2017.

Visiting Scholar at The Europe Center, 2017-2018
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Associate Professor, Political Science
Faculty Research Fellow at NBER
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Vicky Fouka is an Associate Professor of Political Science at Stanford University, a Faculty Research Fellow at the NBER, and a Research Affiliate at CEPR. She is a political economist with interests in group identity and intergroup relations, culture, and historical social dynamics. Her articles are published in journals such as the American Political Science Review, the Review of Economic Studies, the Journal of Politics, the Economic Journal, Public Opinion Quarterly, and Nature Human Behaviour. Her work has received the Joseph L. Bernd award for best paper published in the Journal of Politics, the Economic Journal Austin Robinson prize, and the best article award of the APSA Migration and Citizenship section. She holds a PhD in Economics from Pompeu Fabra University.

Fouka's research was featured in The Europe Center April 2018 Newsletter.

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